Chris Barker

I tend towards the ‘Hanlon’s Razor’ version of Trump.

1) He wants a ‘win’ before the midterms, and doesn’t care about the consequences in a few years because a Democrat will probably be in power.

2) He is very stupid and doesn’t understand deterrence or geopolitics.

3) He’s thin-skinned and lashes out at anyone who tries to set him straight, like Zelensky.

4) He understands everything in transactional terms and through the right-wing media’s disinformation bubble.

Trump is therefore taking a lot of foolish steps without having a long-term plan or doing the maths on whether it will work. If it sounds good to your elderly right-wing American uncle, he will probably do it.

NB: this explains his domestic moves as well: Musk told him: ‘we will run the government like a business! It will be great!’ and they just did it without checking whether it would be legal or produce a huge backlash down the road.